Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Chicago Cubs a 6-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on September 7, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had framed as a 56 percent pre-game advantage for the home side and ultimately driving Chicago's win probability to zero. Arizona built its lead methodically, scoring in the first, third, eighth, and ninth innings while Chicago managed only single runs in the fifth and ninth. The Diamondbacks finished with ten hits and committed no errors, while the Cubs managed just five hits and were hurt by one error of their own.

The two swings with the greatest win-probability impact both came off Chicago reliever Keegan Thompson. Ketel Marte's home run in the top of the third inning off starter Javier Assad was the first major blow, shifting Arizona's win probability by plus 12.1 percent and setting the tone for the afternoon. Tommy Pham then delivered the decisive knockout in the top of the eighth, connecting off Thompson for a home run that added another 12.3 percent to Arizona's win probability and effectively ended any realistic path back for the Cubs. On the Chicago side, Seiya Suzuki's triple off Ryne Nelson in the bottom of the fifth represented the Cubs' best moment, adding 7.3 percent to their win probability, but it produced only a single run and the rally stalled from there.

Ryne Nelson was the game's most dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a plus 22.0 percent WPA contribution from the mound. He was supported by Ryan Thompson at plus 8.8 percent and Andrew Saalfrank at plus 4.7 percent, giving Arizona a bullpen that held Chicago in check through the final frames. Offensively, Marte led all position players with a plus 13.8 percent WPA and a plus 2.4 RE24, while Pham added plus 10.4 percent WPA and a plus 1.9 RE24. Suzuki's plus 6.8 percent WPA stood as the lone bright spot for Chicago in a game the Cubs controlled in name only before the first pitch was thrown.