St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8-5 on September 7, 2023, at Truist Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate effectively anticipated from the outset, assigning Atlanta a 74% pre-game win probability that reached 100% by the final out. St. Louis grabbed an early foothold with a three-run second inning, Tommy Edman's single off Max Fried contributing a 6.1% swing in the Cardinals' favor, but Atlanta's offense methodically dismantled that lead through the middle innings against a fading Adam Wainwright.

The decisive stretch came in the fifth and sixth innings, entirely at Wainwright's expense. Matt Olson led the damage with a fifth-inning home run that shifted win probability 13.4% toward Atlanta, the single largest play of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The sixth inning compounded the Cardinals' problems when Michael Harris II followed with a home run worth 11.2%, and Ronald Acuña Jr. added another shot worth 9.2%, the two blasts arriving in rapid succession and effectively closing the door on any St. Louis comeback. Wainwright was the central figure in Atlanta's four-homer outburst, surrendering all three of those decisive home runs.

Olson finished as the game's top performer by win-probability added, accumulating a combined 18.9% WPA and a 2.3 RE24, reflecting both the leverage and the run-value impact of his contributions. Harris finished at 9.2% WPA with a 0.6 RE24, while Acuña posted 6.5% WPA and a 1.4 RE24. On the pitching side, Pierce Johnson led Atlanta's relievers with a 5.0% WPA contribution, and Max Fried added 3.8%, as Atlanta's staff ultimately held St. Louis to a pair of consolation runs in the ninth that came too late to alter the outcome.