Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Minnesota Twins 2-1 at Progressive Field on September 6, 2023, in a tight, low-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model entered as a true toss-up at 50% home win probability before Cleveland's pitching and timely hitting gradually closed the door on Minnesota.
The game's decisive moments came in the middle innings, where Cleveland built its slim but ultimately sufficient margin. Will Brennan's double off Joe Ryan in the bottom of the fourth registered a swing of plus 8.6% in win probability and set the tone for his night — he finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 10.8% with a RE24 of plus 1.2, meaning his contributions accounted for more than a run of run-expectancy value above what the situation called for. Andrés Giménez added plus 5.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.8, further reinforcing Cleveland's middle-of-the-lineup production. Minnesota's lone real surge came in the top of the fifth, when Andrew Stevenson singled off Gavin Williams for the Twins' biggest swing of the night at plus 9.6%, but Cleveland's pitching staff kept that threat contained.
On the mound, Cleveland's bullpen was the story. Emmanuel Clase led all pitchers with plus 15.2% WPA, securing the final outs as Max Kepler's flyout in the top of the ninth — a minus 7.1% swing against the Twins — effectively ended any comeback hope. Gavin Williams contributed plus 11.5% WPA and Nick Sandlin added plus 10.8%, anchored by Edouard Julien's strikeout in the eighth that represented a minus 5.2% hit to Minnesota's chances. Cleveland finished with five hits to Minnesota's two, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved to 100% in Cleveland's favor by the final out.