Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners handed the Cincinnati Reds an 8-4 defeat at Great American Ball Park on September 6, 2023, in a game that was effectively decided by a dominant fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the contest with the Reds as a near coin-flip favorite at 49% pre-game win probability, but that number collapsed to 0% by the final out. Seattle's offense did its most decisive damage against Lyon Richardson, who surrendered the bulk of the Mariners' five-run fourth frame and proved to be the central figure in the game's decisive stretch.

The fourth inning was where the game turned most sharply. J.P. Crawford's home run off Richardson carried the single biggest win-probability swing of the night, shifting the balance by 14.8 percentage points in Seattle's favor. Ty France followed with a double that added another 12.0 points of win probability, compounding Richardson's damage in the same frame. Earlier in the second inning, Mike Ford had already tagged Richardson for a home run worth 8.6 points of win probability. The Reds' lone significant counter came in the sixth when Noelvi Marte singled off Matt Brash to generate a 7.4-point swing for Cincinnati, though it was far too little to alter the game's trajectory.

France finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-16.5% and a RE24 of plus-1.7. Crawford was close behind at plus-15.3% WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Ford contributed plus-7.7% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Brash led Seattle's staff at plus-5.4% WPA despite allowing the Marte single, followed by Logan Gilbert at plus-2.9% and Justin Topa at plus-1.5%. Seattle finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, while Cincinnati's lone error contributed to a clean night in the field for the Mariners.