Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a narrow Dodgers lead and turned loanDepot park into a rout on September 6, 2023, defeating Los Angeles 11-4 behind a devastating fifth-inning outburst that all but ended the contest. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Miami a 45 percent chance of winning at home, and by the time the final out was recorded, that figure had climbed to 100 percent, a swing driven almost entirely by a nine-run fifth inning that broke the game open.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth against Lance Lynn, who could not escape the frame intact. Jazz Chisholm Jr. delivered the most consequential blow of the night, a home run that swung win probability by 20.2 percent, the largest single-play shift of the game. Joey Wendle followed with a home run of his own, adding another 17.4 percent swing to the Marlins' advantage. Jacob Stallings contributed to the carnage as well, his double registering a +8.1 percent win-probability impact, also against Lynn. The Dodgers had briefly seized momentum in the top of the fourth when Jason Heyward connected for a home run off A.J. Puk, a swing worth +11.8 percent in win probability, but Xavier Edwards' flyout to end the bottom half of that inning, costing Miami 9.4 percent, kept the Marlins within reach before they ultimately detonated.

Among the game's standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Chisholm led all batters with a +22.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of +1.9, while Wendle posted +17.7 percent WPA and a team-best RE24 of +3.0. Heyward paced the Dodgers with +13.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of +2.1, though Los Angeles managed just six hits and committed two errors on the night. On the mound, Steven Okert led Miami's pitching staff with a +10.3 percent WPA, followed by Edward Cabrera at +5.5 percent, as the Marlins posted 13 hits and held the Dodgers scoreless from the fourth inning through the eighth.