Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays walked off the Boston Red Sox 8-6 in eleven innings on September 5, 2023, at Tropicana Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had already heavily favored from the outset, with a pre-game home win probability of 63 percent that ultimately resolved to 100. The game stretched deep into extra innings with the score knotted before Brandon Lowe delivered the decisive blow, a walk-off home run off Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the eleventh that swung win probability by plus-67.7 percent and ended the contest on the spot. That single swing was the most impactful play of the night, but the path to it was carved out an inning earlier when Jose Siri singled off John Schreiber in the bottom of the tenth, adding plus-29.5 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability and extending the Rays' threat before Christian Bethancourt grounded into a double play, a minus-16.0 percent swing that temporarily quieted that rally.
Boston had kept itself alive in the top of the eleventh, but a pair of groundouts proved costly for the Red Sox offense. Rafael Devers grounded out against Erasmo Ramirez in a spot that actually shifted win probability plus-21.1 percent in Boston's favor, indicating the situation had deteriorated badly for the Red Sox, while Reese McGuire's groundout added another plus-16.4 percent swing in the same frame, reflecting just how little Boston managed with runners on. Lowe finished as the night's most impactful individual, posting a plus-64.4 percent WPA and a plus-2.4 RE24, while Siri contributed plus-30.8 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. Despite going 11 for 11 hits on the night for Boston, the Red Sox committed two errors and were outscored in the innings that mattered most, surrendering three runs in the second, two more in the fourth, and three decisive runs in the eleventh.
On the mound, Tampa Bay's bullpen carried the model's lean toward a home victory through the late innings. Chris Martin led all pitchers with a plus-16.7 percent WPA, followed by Pete Fairbanks at plus-13.5 percent and Jake Diekman at plus-10.6 percent, a trio that collectively preserved the Rays' position long enough for Lowe to close it out.