Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles held off the Los Angeles Angels 5-4 in ten innings on September 5, 2023, at Angel Stadium, completing a back-and-forth finish that the DiamondIQ model had initially framed as a strong Angels lean, estimating a 37 percent home win probability before first pitch. Baltimore scored twice in the third, then went quiet until the game's most consequential stretch began in the ninth inning.

The top of the ninth produced the decisive swing in Baltimore's favor. Ryan Mountcastle singled off Carlos Estévez to shift win probability by 30.7 percent, and Ryan O'Hearn followed with another single off Estévez worth 27.8 percent, the pair of hits effectively putting Baltimore back in control after the Angels had pulled within a run in the bottom of the eighth. Los Angeles answered immediately in the bottom half, as Mickey Moniak's single off DL Hall registered a 44.2 percent win-probability swing — the single largest play of the night — and briefly gave Angel Stadium life heading into extras. In the tenth, Shintaro Fujinami stranded the threat, as Trey Cabbage's strikeout cost the Angels 25.9 percent win probability, and Eduardo Escobar's flyout added 23.7 percent back to Baltimore's ledger, sealing the outcome.

Moniak finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-36.0 percent despite being on the losing side, with his ninth-inning single doing nearly all of that work. Mountcastle posted plus-34.7 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-1.6, and Nolan Schanuel contributed plus-33.5 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Cionel Pérez led Baltimore's bullpen with plus-14.0 percent WPA, followed by Aaron Loup at plus-10.6 percent and Reid Detmers at plus-10.2 percent for Los Angeles. Baltimore finished with 13 hits and no errors; Los Angeles managed 12 hits but committed one error in a loss that left the DiamondIQ model's final home win probability at zero percent.