MLB Recap · September 5, 2023

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

STL10
Final
ATL6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL03210300110120
ATL1000020306110

The Story

The St. Louis Cardinals overcame a 75 percent pre-game home win probability assigned to Atlanta by the DiamondIQ model and beat the Braves 10-6 at Truist Park on September 5, 2023, finishing with 12 hits and no errors while holding Atlanta to 11 hits and no errors across nine innings.

The Cardinals did their most decisive damage early, particularly in the second and third innings. Tyler O'Neill delivered a home run off Michael Soroka in the second that swung win probability 9.8 percent in St. Louis's favor, and a Masyn Winn pop out in that same half-inning represented a 9.4 percent positive swing, reflecting how close Atlanta came to limiting the damage before the inning concluded. Nolan Gorman then put the game further out of reach with a home run off Soroka in the third, the single biggest play of the night at plus 14.3 percent win probability. Jordan Walker added a solo shot off Collin McHugh in the fourth for another 5.0 percent swing. Atlanta's best chance to shift momentum came in the bottom of the second, when a Nicky Lopez lineout represented a 13.6 percent negative swing for the home side, effectively extinguishing a promising rally against Miles Mikolas.

Gorman led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 20.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while O'Neill contributed plus 9.8 percent WPA and the game's top RE24 mark of plus 2.3. Winn added plus 9.7 percent WPA on the evening. On the mound, Miles Mikolas was the night's most impactful performer by far, posting a plus 26.9 percent WPA, a figure that underscores how thoroughly he controlled Atlanta's offense and kept the Cardinals' lead insulated throughout his outing.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalATL win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 74.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nolan Gorman Home Run
Top 3rd · off Michael Soroka
+14.3%
Nicky Lopez Lineout
Bot 2nd · off Miles Mikolas
-13.6%
Tyler O'Neill Home Run
Top 2nd · off Michael Soroka
+9.8%
Masyn Winn Pop Out
Top 2nd · off Michael Soroka
+9.4%
Jordan Walker Home Run
Top 4th · off Collin McHugh
+5.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Nolan Gorman+20.6%+2.0 RE24
Tyler O'Neill+9.8%+2.3 RE24
Masyn Winn+9.7%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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