Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handled the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-3 at PNC Park on September 5, 2023, with the game's outcome essentially settled across two pivotal innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Pittsburgh a 44% chance of winning at home, but that probability collapsed to 0% by the final out. Milwaukee went scoreless through the first three frames before the fourth inning opened a crack in the Pirates' armor, as Carlos Santana drew a walk off Andre Jackson to add 7.4% to Milwaukee's win probability, and William Contreras followed with another walk worth 5.9%. The threat was blunted momentarily when Mark Canha grounded into a double play, swinging 7.1% back toward Pittsburgh, but the Brewers' one-run advantage heading into the fifth proved to be just the setup for the game's decisive moment.

The fifth inning was where Milwaukee buried the Pirates for good, plating six runs to make the score 7-0. The central blow was Andruw Monasterio's triple off Andre Jackson, which alone shifted win probability by 15.4% in Milwaukee's favor. Carlos Santana added a double off Thomas Hatch in that same inning worth another 5.2%. Pittsburgh managed three runs in the ninth to trim the final margin to 7-3, but the outcome was never in doubt by that point.

Monasterio finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 12.9% and an RE24 of plus 0.9. Santana was equally instrumental with a combined WPA of plus 10.0% and an RE24 of plus 1.7 across his multi-hit effort, while Contreras contributed plus 7.7% WPA. On the mound, Brandon Woodruff was the most impactful arm of the night, generating plus 14.2% WPA as Milwaukee finished with seven runs on seven hits and no errors.