MLB Recap · September 4, 2023

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

CWS1
Final
KC12

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000000010130
KC11127000-12161

The Story

The Kansas City Royals routed the Chicago White Sox 12-1 on September 4, 2023, at Kauffman Stadium, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near-even contest at 46 percent home win probability into a complete foregone conclusion by game's end, finishing at 100 percent. Kansas City scored in each of the first five innings and delivered the knockout blow in the bottom of the fifth with a seven-run frame that effectively ended any competitive uncertainty. The Royals finished with 16 hits against a White Sox club that managed just three.

The decisive sequence began building in the second inning, when Drew Waters delivered a single off Jesse Scholtens that shifted win probability by plus-6.3 percent, and the inning continued to develop in Kansas City's favor, with Nick Loftin's flyout registering a plus-4.9 percent swing in context. A Lenyn Sosa strikeout against Cole Ragans in the top of the second represented the game's sharpest negative swing for Chicago at minus-5.3 percent, underscoring how quickly the window closed for the visitors. Nelson Velázquez then put the game further out of reach with a home run off Scholtens in the bottom of the fourth, the single biggest batting play of the night at plus-8.2 percent win probability added. Edward Olivares contributed an important single off Scholtens in the third, adding plus-4.4 percent to Kansas City's growing advantage.

Among individual performers, Cole Ragans was the standout by a wide margin, his pitching effort credited with a plus-21.5 percent win probability contribution that anchored the entire outcome. On the offensive side, Velázquez led Kansas City batters with plus-8.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Olivares posted the best run-environment figure of the group at plus-3.3 RE24 alongside plus-6.7 percent WPA. Waters finished with plus-6.4 percent WPA. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of win probability moved in one unambiguous direction throughout, reflecting a Royals performance that was dominant from the opening frame forward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalKC win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nelson Velázquez Home Run
Bot 4th · off Jesse Scholtens
+8.2%
Drew Waters Single
Bot 2nd · off Jesse Scholtens
+6.3%
Lenyn Sosa Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Cole Ragans
-5.3%
Nick Loftin Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Jesse Scholtens
+4.9%
Edward Olivares Single
Bot 3rd · off Jesse Scholtens
+4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Nelson Velázquez+8.0%+2.0 RE24
Edward Olivares+6.7%+3.3 RE24
Drew Waters+6.4%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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