Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Colorado Rockies 4-2 at Chase Field on September 4, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset, setting pregame home win probability at 68% before watching it climb to 100% by game's end. Arizona did the bulk of its damage in the third and fourth innings, building a lead that Colorado never seriously threatened. The Rockies managed a run in the fifth and added another in the ninth, but their five-hit output against Arizona's pitching staff left them too far behind to mount a meaningful comeback.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third when Corbin Carroll ripped a triple off Colorado starter Peter Lambert, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 14.9 percentage points and set the table for what followed. Arizona continued to punish Lambert in the fourth, as Jace Peterson doubled for a plus 7.5 percent swing, Gabriel Moreno singled to extend the advantage at plus 6.4 percent, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. capped the inning with a double worth plus 8.8 percent to the home side. Colorado's best opportunity to respond came undone in the top of the third when Hunter Goodman grounded into a double play off Merrill Kelly, a play that swung win probability minus 8.0 percent against the Rockies and effectively extinguished their earliest threat.

Carroll led all position players by WPA at plus 13.0 percent to go with an RE24 of plus 0.8, while Gurriel Jr. finished at plus 6.4 percent and Moreno at plus 4.6 percent, the three of them accounting for Arizona's most productive at-bats. On the mound, Merrill Kelly was the game's single most impactful player by that measure, finishing with a plus 14.8 percent WPA contribution, supported by Kevin Ginkel at plus 4.5 percent and Paul Sewald at plus 2.4 percent as the Arizona bullpen closed out the win cleanly.