Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox overcame a three-run deficit at Tropicana Field on September 4, 2023, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 to erase what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 62 percent pre-game win probability for the home side. Tampa Bay scored all three of its runs in the first inning and held that lead into the sixth, but Boston's offense dismantled the Rays bullpen in two decisive bursts, ultimately pushing the model's estimate of a Tampa Bay win to zero percent by game's end.

The turning point arrived in the top of the sixth, when Triston Casas launched a home run off Chris Devenski that swung win probability by 30.7 percent in Boston's favor, the single largest play of the game. That swing wiped out the Rays' lead and shifted the contest's momentum entirely. Tampa Bay briefly threatened in the bottom half of the sixth when Josh Lowe laced a double off Brayan Bello to move the probability 9.1 percent toward the home team, but Bello responded by striking out Randy Arozarena and Harold Ramírez in succession, those two outs collectively erasing 16.8 percent in Tampa Bay's favor. Boston then put the game away with a three-run eighth inning, capped by Masataka Yoshida's home run off Andrew Kittredge, which added another 16.1 percent to Boston's win probability.

Casas finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a combined WPA of plus 31.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Justin Turner contributed plus 13.4 percent WPA and Yoshida added plus 8.8 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus 1.6. On the pitching side, Josh Winckowski led Boston's staff with a WPA of plus 9.7 percent, supported by Jake Diekman at plus 6.6 percent and Aaron Civale at plus 6.1 percent, as the Red Sox bullpen collectively protected the lead through the final three innings without allowing a run.