Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Los Angeles Angels 6-3 at Angel Stadium on September 4, 2023, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, having set the Angels' pre-game win probability at just 38 percent. Baltimore built its lead in two separate bursts, scoring three runs in the third inning and three more in the seventh, while Los Angeles was unable to string together enough offense to seriously threaten the outcome.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the seventh, when Gunnar Henderson launched a home run off Gerardo Reyes that shifted win probability by 29.3 percentage points in Baltimore's favor, representing the single largest swing of the game. Baltimore had already established its foundation in the third inning, where Austin Hays doubled off Kenny Rosenberg for a 12.8-point swing and Ryan Mountcastle followed with a single worth an additional 8.8 points. Los Angeles generated its most dangerous moment in the fourth, when Randal Grichuk connected for a home run off Grayson Rodriguez to produce an 11.3-point swing for the Angels, though a Logan O'Hoppe double play in the sixth, costing Los Angeles 11.9 points of win probability, undercut their best opportunity to close the gap.

Among individual performers, Henderson led all batters with a WPA of plus 25.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.5, while Hays contributed plus 11.7 percent WPA and Mickey Moniak added plus 10.9 percent. On the mound, Jacob Webb paced Baltimore's relievers with a WPA of plus 3.6 percent, and Grayson Rodriguez posted plus 3.0 percent despite surrendering the Grichuk home run, finishing as the second-most valuable arm by that measure.