Seattle Mariners at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-3 at Citi Field on September 3, 2023, moving the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability estimate from 43 percent all the way to a final certainty of 100 percent. New York built its lead steadily through the early innings before Seattle mounted a brief rally in the fourth, making the decisive plays in the middle frames the true hinge points of the contest.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the fourth inning, when the Mariners temporarily seized momentum. Dominic Canzone launched a home run off Tylor Megill that added 13.3 percentage points to Seattle's win probability, and Mike Ford followed with another home run off Megill worth an additional 10.1 points, giving the Mariners their only lead-threatening burst of offense. However, New York had already established its foundation on a Pete Alonso home run off George Kirby in the bottom of the third, a swing worth plus-11.4 percentage points, and Jeff McNeil extended the cushion further with a home run off Dominic Leone in the fifth worth plus-10.6 points. Any lingering Seattle hope effectively ended when Julio Rodriguez grounded into a double play in the top of the fifth, a play that shifted the win probability 10.0 points against the Mariners.

Alonso finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a WPA of plus-20.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.3, while McNeil contributed plus-11.2 percent WPA and Canzone posted plus-10.2 percent despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Brooks Raley led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-10.4 percent, followed by Isaiah Campbell at plus-6.9 and Megill at plus-5.2, as New York's bullpen protected the lead through the final innings to secure the win. The Mets finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while Seattle managed 6 hits and was charged with one error.