Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Atlanta Braves 3-1 at Dodger Stadium on September 3, 2023, in a game that was tightly contested through the middle innings before Los Angeles pulled away. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the two clubs nearly even, assigning the Dodgers a 49% home win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100% as Los Angeles executed in the moments that mattered most.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fifth inning, where Mookie Betts delivered a single off Charlie Morton that shifted win probability by 12.8 percentage points, and Miguel Rojas followed with a double off Morton adding another 8.1 percentage points, the two hits combining to open a two-run frame that gave the Dodgers the lead they would not relinquish. Matt Olson provided Atlanta's lone response in the top of the seventh, launching a home run off Bobby Miller that swung win probability 12.3 points in the Braves' favor and briefly tightened the contest, but James Outman answered in the bottom of the eighth with a single off Ben Heller that produced the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus-13.0 points, effectively sealing the outcome. Atlanta's final threat dissolved in the top of the ninth when Austin Riley grounded into a double play off Brusdar Graterol, a sequence that cost the Braves 12.4 points of win probability and closed the door on any comeback bid.

Betts led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-18.5% and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Outman finished at plus-15.9% WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. On the mound, Bobby Miller was the standout despite surrendering the Olson home run, finishing with a WPA of plus-24.3%, the highest mark of any player in the game. Shelby Miller contributed plus-10.8% WPA in relief, and Graterol added plus-6.3% to close things out, as the Dodgers collected 11 hits against Atlanta's two errors in a clean, controlled performance.