Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a 7-3 defeat at Chase Field on September 2, 2023, in a game that turned decisively in the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Arizona a 43% chance of winning at home, but that probability collapsed to 0% by the final out, a reflection of how thoroughly Baltimore seized control after a quiet first three frames.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the fourth against Diamondbacks starter Slade Cecconi, when Baltimore erupted for six runs in what became the game's defining inning. Cedric Mullins delivered the knockout blow with a home run that swung win probability by 28.7 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. Adam Frazier followed with a double that added another 11.8 percentage points, and Adley Rutschman contributed a single worth 8.3 points of win probability, compounding the damage against Cecconi before Arizona could limit the bleeding. Arizona had briefly generated momentum in the bottom of the third when Ketel Marte hit a double off Kyle Bradish that shifted win probability 13.1 points in the Diamondbacks' favor, but the lead vanished entirely the following half-inning. Tommy Pham's grounded into double play in the fifth, a minus-7.3 percentage point swing, further deflated Arizona's chances of mounting a comeback.

By the numbers, Mullins finished as the game's top performer with a WPA of plus-27.6 and an RE24 of plus-2.9, while Marte led Arizona hitters with a WPA of plus-16.9 and an RE24 of plus-2.0 despite the loss. Rutschman rounded out Baltimore's top contributors at plus-9.9 WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. Out of the bullpen, Joe Mantiply led Baltimore's relievers with a WPA of plus-3.9, as the Orioles' pitching staff held Arizona to five hits and allowed just a single run in the ninth after the outcome had long been settled.