Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2 in extra innings on September 2, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Dodgers victory opening at 48 percent and collapsing to zero by game's end. The contest was a tightly wound affair through nine innings, with both teams exchanging solo home runs in the third — Ronald Acuña Jr. connecting off Emmet Sheehan for Atlanta and Los Angeles answering to keep the game level. The score remained deadlocked from that point through the ninth, setting up a dramatic tenth inning that would decide everything.

The defining moment of the night came in the top of the tenth when Orlando Arcia launched a home run off Alex Vesia, a swing that registered a +66.5 percent win-probability shift according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and effectively broke the game open. Arcia finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a cumulative WPA of +56.6 percent alongside a RE24 of +2.3. The Dodgers had generated some late hope in the bottom of the ninth, where Mookie Betts' strikeout against Michael Tonkin actually swung the model's estimate by +14.0 percent in Los Angeles's favor by extending the at-bat situation, but Atlanta's bullpen ultimately held firm. Amed Rosario's strikeout to end the bottom of the tenth against Raisel Iglesias carried a +12.0 percent probability shift and sealed the win for Atlanta.

On the mound, the Braves received critical contributions from Bryce Elder, Evan Phillips, and A.J. Minter, who combined for WPA totals of +17.2, +20.7, and +10.9 respectively. Minter was particularly effective in the eighth, inducing a James Outman strikeout that shifted the model's estimate by -10.0 percent against Los Angeles. Atlanta finished the night with five hits and no errors, while the Dodgers stranded enough opportunities across six hits to ultimately fall short in a game the model considered essentially a coin flip entering the first pitch.