Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 8-7 at Coors Field on September 2, 2023, overcoming a four-run deficit surrendered in the opening inning to claim a victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate pegged at just a 37 percent pre-game probability for the home side. Colorado chipped away steadily, scoring two in the second and two more in the fourth before delivering the decisive blow in the fifth. It was Brenton Doyle's triple off Yimi García in the bottom of the fifth that served as the game's single most impactful play, shifting win probability by plus 29.7 percent in Colorado's favor, and Charlie Blackmon followed with a run-scoring single off García that added another 9.6 percent. Ezequiel Tovar's double off Yusei Kikuchi in the fourth, worth plus 15.2 percent in win probability, had already begun the decisive sequence that unraveled Toronto's early advantage.

Toronto mounted a late push in the ninth, with Davis Schneider delivering a triple off Justin Lawrence that added 10.3 percent win probability for the visitors, but Spencer Horwitz's strikeout against Tyler Kinley proved the game's second-largest swing at minus 20.7 percent, effectively sealing Colorado's hold on the outcome and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent for the Rockies.

Doyle finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 20.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.9, while Blackmon was close behind at plus 19.5 percent and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 3.8. George Springer contributed a plus 10.4 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24 in a losing effort for Toronto. On the mound, Kinley was the standout with a plus 20.7 percent WPA in closing out the game, supported by Gavin Hollowell at plus 5.0 percent and Ty Blach at plus 4.6 percent as Colorado's bullpen preserved an 8-7 final with identical hit totals of 11 on each side.