MLB Recap · September 1, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

BOS2
Final
KC13

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS000000020250
KC24100600-13170

The Story

The Kansas City Royals handed the Boston Red Sox a lopsided 13-2 defeat on September 1, 2023, at Kauffman Stadium, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 33 percent pre-game home win probability into a near-certain outcome by the middle innings. Kansas City scored in three of the first three frames and then erupted for six runs in the sixth inning, ultimately finishing with 17 hits against a Boston staff that had no answer for the Royals lineup across nine innings.

The win-probability story of this game was shaped as much by outs as by hits. The two biggest swings came in the second inning, where Michael Massey's pop out — counterintuitively — shifted win probability 15.0 percent in Kansas City's favor by ending a Boston threat and keeping the Royals' momentum intact, and Masataka Yoshida's strikeout against Jordan Lyles moved the needle 10.6 percent against the Red Sox. Earlier, in the first inning, Freddy Fermin grounded into a double play off James Paxton for an 8.1 percent swing toward Kansas City, while Justin Turner's strikeout against Lyles cost Boston 5.3 percent. Nelson Velazquez added a double off Paxton in the second that contributed a further 3.3 percent in the Royals' favor.

Jordan Lyles was the game's most dominant individual performer by DiamondIQ's numbers, finishing with a 21.5 percent WPA contribution on the mound. Among position players, Massey led all batters at plus-15.4 percent WPA, Fermin added plus-7.8 percent, and Bobby Witt Jr. contributed plus-5.6 percent alongside a 1.9 RE24, the best run-environment figure among the game's top performers.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalKC win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 33.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Michael Massey Pop Out
Bot 2nd · off Mauricio Llovera
+15.0%
Masataka Yoshida Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Jordan Lyles
-10.6%
Freddy Fermin Grounded Into DP
Bot 1st · off James Paxton
+8.1%
Justin Turner Strikeout
Top 1st · off Jordan Lyles
-5.3%
Bot 2nd · off James Paxton
+3.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Michael Massey+15.4%-0.6 RE24
Freddy Fermin+7.8%-0.1 RE24
Bobby Witt Jr.+5.6%+1.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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