Seattle Mariners at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Seattle Mariners 2-1 at Citi Field on September 1, 2023, in a tightly contested affair that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets victory climb from 43 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Neither team scored through the first three innings, and Seattle struck first when J.P. Crawford launched a solo home run off Kodai Senga in the fourth, a swing that shifted win probability 11.3 percent in favor of the Mariners. New York answered in the sixth when Brandon Nimmo connected on a solo home run against Logan Gilbert, a blow worth 14.8 percent in win probability that knotted the game at one. The decisive run came in the bottom of the eighth, when Daniel Vogelbach laced a single off Andrés Muñoz, a hit that carried an 18.1 percent win-probability swing and pushed the Mets ahead for good.

Seattle mounted a threat in the ninth, with Cal Raleigh drawing a walk off Drew Smith that swung win probability 10.6 percent toward the Mariners. However, Teoscar Hernández followed with a flyout that proved to be the most consequential play of the game by win-probability impact, a 22.8 percent swing back toward New York that effectively ended any realistic Seattle comeback. Crawford finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-13.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Vogelbach contributed plus-9.5 percent and Ronny Mauricio added plus-6.8 percent for New York. On the pitching side, Senga led all hurlers at plus-27.3 percent WPA despite surrendering the Crawford home run, with Drew Smith adding plus-15.2 percent and Logan Gilbert contributing plus-14.2 percent in a losing effort for Seattle.