MLB Recap · September 1, 2023

Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

TOR13
Final
COL9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TOR00011251313172
COL0020030049110

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays outlasted the Colorado Rockies 13-9 at Coors Field on September 1, 2023, in a high-scoring affair that saw the lead change hands before Toronto ultimately pulled away. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave Colorado just a 36% chance of winning at home, and that probability reached 0% by the final out. The game's most pivotal sequence unfolded across the sixth and seventh innings, when the contest swung dramatically on a series of extra-base hits that shifted momentum entirely in Toronto's favor.

The biggest single play of the game came in the bottom of the sixth, when Nolan Jones launched a home run off Génesis Cabrera that added 41.1 percentage points to Colorado's win probability, briefly swinging the game back toward the Rockies after Toronto had taken a narrow lead. But the Blue Jays answered immediately. Danny Jansen's home run off Chris Flexen in the top of the sixth contributed a 23.5-point WPA swing for Toronto, and the Blue Jays continued to pile on in the seventh, with Alejandro Kirk doubling off Brent Suter for another 23.5-point swing and Davis Schneider adding a double off Jake Bird worth 21.8 points. Toronto scored five runs in that seventh inning alone, turning what had been a contested game into a comfortable lead. Elehuris Montero had given Colorado an early spark with a third-inning home run off Hyun Jin Ryu worth 16.2 WPA points, but the Rockies could not sustain the pressure.

Jones finished as the game's top performer by a significant margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-48.1% and a RE24 of plus-4.4, figures that reflected both his home run and his broader contributions throughout the night. Kirk and Jansen followed with WPA totals of plus-23.5% and plus-19.9%, respectively, anchoring a Toronto lineup that produced 17 hits. On the pitching side, Jordan Hicks led Blue Jays relievers with a WPA of plus-3.6%, followed by Yimi García at plus-2.8% and Gavin Hollowell at plus-2.1%, as Toronto's bullpen held together through a Colorado ninth-inning rally that produced four runs but fell short of overcoming the deficit.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TOR bats firstFinalCOL win %TOR win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 35.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nolan Jones Home Run
Bot 6th · off Génesis Cabrera
+41.1%
Alejandro Kirk Double
Top 7th · off Brent Suter
+23.5%
Danny Jansen Home Run
Top 6th · off Chris Flexen
+23.5%
Davis Schneider Double
Top 7th · off Jake Bird
+21.8%
Elehuris Montero Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Hyun Jin Ryu
+16.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Nolan Jones+48.1%+4.4 RE24
Alejandro Kirk+23.5%+1.5 RE24
Danny Jansen+19.9%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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