Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Washington Nationals a 6-1 defeat at Nationals Park on August 31, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability opening at 50 percent before collapsing to 0 percent by the final out. Miami built its advantage steadily, scoring in the first, fourth, and fifth innings before adding an insurance run in the ninth, finishing with 13 hits and no errors against Washington's three hits and one error. The Nationals never mounted a serious threat, and the outcome was largely settled before the midpoint of the game.

The decisive swing came in the top of the fifth inning, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. connected on a home run off Joan Adon that shifted win probability by 14.1 percentage points in Miami's favor, the single most impactful play of the night. Chisholm finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, accumulating a combined 16.1 percent win probability added and a RE24 of plus 1.8. A half-inning earlier, Nick Fortes reached on a hit by pitch off Adon that moved the needle 7.5 percentage points toward Miami and ranked as the second most consequential play. Washington's best offensive moment came in the bottom of the fifth when Jacob Young doubled off Braxton Garrett for a 5.9 percentage point swing, but the Nationals' Michael Chavis grounded into a double play in the seventh that cost Washington 7.2 percentage points, effectively ending any realistic comeback scenario.

Braxton Garrett was the standout performer on the mound, posting a WPA of plus 24.3 percent to lead all pitchers on either side by a wide margin. He limited the Nationals to minimal damage despite the Young double, and his command of the game held Washington to a single run through his time on the hill. JT Chargois added 3.6 percent WPA in relief, and Robert Garcia contributed another 2.1 percent, making the Marlins' bullpen work a collective afterthought to what had already been determined by the fifth inning.