San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the San Diego Padres 5-4 on August 30, 2023, at Busch Stadium in a game that turned entirely on a single swing in the ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 51 percent home win probability, a reflection of how evenly matched the two clubs appeared heading into the night, but finished at 100 percent after Tommy Edman ended the contest with a walk-off home run off Josh Hader that shifted win probability by 84.7 points. It was the most impactful play of the game by a wide margin and erased what had looked like a Padres bullpen advantage late.

The Cardinals seized early control in the fourth inning when Jordan Walker connected on a three-run home run off Rich Hill, a swing worth 19.6 percent in win probability and the decisive blow that gave St. Louis a lead it would not relinquish until the Padres drew even. San Diego answered in the seventh when Juan Soto singled off John King, a hit that carried 14.9 percent in win probability and helped the Padres chip away at the deficit. The Cardinals nearly put the game away in the eighth, but Andrew Knizner's strikeout against Scott Barlow removed 16.5 percent in win probability from St. Louis, keeping the door open for San Diego before Edman ultimately slammed it shut in the ninth. Masyn Winn set the table for Edman with a double off Hader worth 10.2 percent, making the walk-off possible.

Edman finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 77.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.5, while Walker contributed plus 29.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.4 to anchor the Cardinals' offensive effort. On the pitching side, Barlow led all pitchers with plus 36.1 percent WPA, and Luis García added plus 13.3 percent out of the bullpen. The DiamondIQ model favors the Cardinals' late-game execution as the defining factor, with Edman's home run representing the single greatest probability swing of the contest.