Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians erased a two-run deficit and pulled away in extra innings to defeat the Minnesota Twins 5-2 on August 30, 2023, at Target Field. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 58 percent pre-game win probability favoring the home side, but that figure fell to zero by the final out as Cleveland dominated the extra frame entirely.

Minnesota held a 2-0 advantage through nine innings, with Jorge Polanco's fifth-inning single off Tanner Bibee representing the game's most consequential swing in favor of the Twins, shifting win probability 19.2 percent in Minnesota's direction. Cleveland began chipping away in the eighth and ninth, and Bo Naylor's strikeout against Jhoan Duran in the top of the ninth, while a negative outcome for the batter, shifted win probability 19.3 percent toward Cleveland by preserving the Guardians' deficit at two and keeping the game within reach. The decisive blow came in the tenth inning when Kole Calhoun connected on a home run off Kody Funderburk, a swing that moved Cleveland's win probability by 59.4 percent and effectively ended the contest. Myles Straw's sacrifice bunt earlier in the tenth had set the table with a 16.4 percent probability swing, while Steven Kwan's flyout had briefly stalled the rally at minus 18.0 percent.

Calhoun finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a WPA of plus 53.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.1. Polanco led all Twins batters with a WPA of plus 29.1 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.8 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Sonny Gray was the standout, generating plus 32.0 percent in WPA, with James Karinchak and Griffin Jax contributing plus 3.3 and plus 2.8 percent, respectively, out of the Cleveland bullpen.