Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Miami Marlins an 11-2 defeat at loanDepot park on August 29, 2023, a game that was closer than its margin suggested through five innings before the Rays pulled decisively away. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Miami a 43 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that estimate had fallen to zero percent, reflecting how thoroughly Tampa Bay dismantled the Marlins across the final four innings.

The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth inning against Sandy Alcantara, when Jose Siri laced a double that shifted win probability by plus-23.2 percent in the Rays' favor — the single largest swing of the game. Isaac Paredes followed with a single off Alcantara that added another 11.6 percent, extending what became a three-run frame that broke the game open. Tampa Bay kept pressing in the seventh, with Randy Arozarena adding a home run off George Soriano worth plus-9.3 percent in win probability, capping a four-run inning that rendered the outcome a formality. Miami's best moment had come in the bottom of the third, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a home run off Aaron Civale that swung win probability 10.9 percent toward the Marlins, but the club could not sustain any further momentum.

Among individual performers, Siri finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-19.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.6, his sixth-inning double serving as the pivot point of the contest. Chisholm Jr. was Miami's lone bright spot, posting plus-9.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1. On the mound, Robert Stephenson paced Tampa Bay's relievers with plus-7.5 percent WPA, though he did surrender Jake Burger's double in the sixth — worth plus-8.8 percent for Miami — before the Marlins failed to convert that threat into meaningful runs. The Rays finished with 15 hits and committed no errors, while Miami's lone miscue compounded an already difficult night.