MLB Recap · August 29, 2023

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

MIL0
Final
CHC1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL000000000070
CHC10000000-180

The Story

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 1-0 on August 29, 2023 at Wrigley Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win climbing from 51 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago's lone run, scored in the first inning, proved to be all the offense either side would need in a tightly contested pitchers' duel that saw the Cubs manage eight hits against Milwaukee's seven, with neither club committing an error across nine innings.

The game's most consequential defensive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Nico Hoerner grounded into a double play against Corbin Burnes, a sequence that swung win probability 13.8 percent in Milwaukee's favor and represented the single biggest shift of the evening from the batting team's perspective. The Brewers came closest to threatening in the top of the eighth, when Christian Yelich singled off Julian Merryweather to nudge Milwaukee's chances forward by 7.9 percent, though Mark Canha's strikeout in that same inning against Merryweather had already cost the visitors 11.6 percent in win probability. Adbert Alzolay closed out the game, getting Willy Adames on a flyout in the ninth that carried a 7.1 percent swing, while Seiya Suzuki's strikeout off Abner Uribe in the bottom of the eighth added 7.8 percent to Chicago's side of the ledger.

On the individual ledger, Justin Steele led all pitchers with a remarkable 31.8 percent WPA, underscoring how thoroughly he controlled the game before the bullpen took over. Corbin Burnes countered with 22.3 percent WPA for Milwaukee despite absorbing the loss, and Alzolay contributed 15.2 percent in relief. Among position players, Yan Gomes posted the night's top batting WPA at plus 8.5 percent to go along with a RE24 of plus 0.5, while Dansby Swanson added 4.2 percent WPA and Yelich's 3.3 percent WPA on the Milwaukee side reflected his team's most productive offensive moment in a game that ultimately offered the Brewers very little room to maneuver.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalCHC win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nico Hoerner Double Play
Bot 5th · off Corbin Burnes
-13.8%
Mark Canha Strikeout
Top 8th · off Julian Merryweather
-11.6%
Christian Yelich Single
Top 8th · off Julian Merryweather
+7.9%
Seiya Suzuki Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Abner Uribe
+7.8%
Willy Adames Flyout
Top 9th · off Adbert Alzolay
-7.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Yan Gomes+8.5%+0.5 RE24
Dansby Swanson+4.2%-0.1 RE24
Christian Yelich+3.3%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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