Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins handled the Cleveland Guardians 10-6 at Target Field on August 28, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 59 percent home win probability into a near-foregone conclusion by the middle innings. The game was effectively decided in the first four frames, with Minnesota scoring six runs in the second inning and three more in the fourth to build an advantage Cleveland could never seriously threaten.

The second inning was the decisive sequence of the game. Royce Lewis delivered the biggest single swing of the night with a home run off Xzavion Curry that shifted win probability by 24.9 percent in Minnesota's favor, and later in that same frame Donovan Solano added a single that moved the needle another 10.3 percent. Minnesota's offense continued its assault in the third, when Matt Wallner connected on a home run off Daniel Norris for a 10.2 percent win-probability swing, and Jorge Polanco followed in the fourth with another home run off Norris worth 23.1 percent. On the Cleveland side, Steven Kwan's lineout in the top of the second — a hard-hit ball that died in the glove — represented a 9.9 percent negative swing that briefly stalled any Guardians momentum before it could take hold.

Polanco led all position players by WPA at plus-27.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.6, while Lewis was nearly his equal at plus-26.9 percent and posted the game's best RE24 at plus-3.4, underscoring how thoroughly those two performances shaped the outcome. On the mound, Kody Funderburk led Minnesota's relievers with a plus-6.8 percent WPA contribution, followed by Josh Winder at plus-5.5 percent, as the bullpen held Cleveland scoreless over the final six innings to preserve a comfortable margin. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end.