Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-4 at Dodger Stadium on August 28, 2023, completing the win after the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 64 percent in favor of the home team and climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned on two separate multi-run bursts, with Arizona briefly seizing control in the fourth before Los Angeles answered decisively in the sixth.

Arizona mounted its most significant threat in the top of the fourth inning, when Gabriel Moreno launched a home run off Bobby Miller that swung win probability by 18.2 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. followed with a double off Miller that added another 12.0 percent swing, capping a three-run frame that temporarily shifted momentum. That 3-0 Arizona lead, however, was undermined in the bottom of the fourth when David Peralta grounded into a double play off Zac Gallen, a play that cost the Dodgers 9.4 percent in win probability and left their rally stalled. Los Angeles had already put three runs on the board in the first inning, and the Dodgers reclaimed full control in the bottom of the sixth, when Jason Heyward connected on a home run off Gallen for the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 22.9 percent, followed shortly by a James Outman home run off Gallen worth another 11.2 percent.

Heyward finished as the top batter by DiamondIQ's measure, posting a plus-32.0 percent WPA and a plus-2.1 RE24, while Moreno led Arizona at plus-18.2 percent WPA and a plus-2.2 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Outman contributed plus-15.6 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 in support of the Dodgers' victory. Out of the bullpen, Alex Vesia led Los Angeles relievers with a plus-7.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Ryan Brasier at plus-4.5 percent and Caleb Ferguson at plus-2.4 percent as the Dodgers closed out the 7-4 win.