Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Chicago Cubs a 6-2 defeat at Wrigley Field on August 28, 2023, with the game's outcome shaped early and never seriously contested. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 50 percent home win probability for Chicago, but by the final out that figure had dropped to zero. Milwaukee struck immediately in the top of the first, and Wade Miley's dominance on the mound ensured the Brewers never needed to look back, finishing with a clean 10-hit, zero-error effort against a Cubs side that committed two errors on their own side of the ledger.
The decisive moments arrived in the game's opening frames. The biggest single swing came in the bottom of the second, when Jeimer Candelario grounded out against Miley in a spot that cost Chicago 9.5 percentage points of win probability, a sign of how the Cubs repeatedly failed to capitalize on opportunities to get back into the game. On the other side, Andruw Monasterio's lineout in the top of the first contributed a 7.6 percent win probability swing in Milwaukee's favor off Jameson Taillon, reflecting the pressure the Brewers applied from the very first inning. Sal Frelick added a strikeout in the top of the second that represented another 7.4 percent positive swing for Milwaukee, as Taillon worked through early traffic at a steep cost to Chicago's chances. The lone Cubs highlight of consequence was Patrick Wisdom's home run off Miley in the bottom of the fifth, worth 7.0 percent in win probability, which accounted for one of Chicago's two runs.
Wade Miley was the clear individual story of the evening, accumulating 29.6 percent in win probability added to lead all pitchers, supported by Elvis Peguero at plus-3.6 percent and Joel Payamps at plus-1.2 percent. Among Milwaukee hitters, Monasterio led with plus-7.7 percent in WPA, followed by Frelick at plus-7.0 percent and William Contreras at plus-4.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.8, the best run-environment contribution among the three. The DiamondIQ model's estimate firmly favored the Brewers as the game progressed, and Milwaukee's combination of pitching efficiency and early offensive pressure proved more than enough to secure the road win.