Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros dismantled the Boston Red Sox 13-5 at Fenway Park on August 28, 2023, handing the home side a decisive defeat. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning each team a 50 percent chance of winning, but by the final out Boston's probability had fallen to zero, reflecting just how thoroughly Houston controlled the contest. The Astros accumulated 18 hits without committing an error, while Boston managed 10 hits and was charged with one error across nine innings.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, when Houston turned a competitive game into a rout by plating six runs against reliever Kyle Barraclough. Jose Altuve's triple off Barraclough registered the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-27.3 percent, and Yordan Alvarez followed with a home run that added another plus-20.3 percent, the third-largest play of the game. Boston's most meaningful response came in the bottom of the fifth, when Adam Duvall connected on a two-run home run off Cristian Javier for a plus-20.5 percent swing, momentarily tightening the game before Houston's sixth-inning eruption rendered it moot. Earlier, a José Abreu walk off Chris Sale in the top of the fifth had generated a plus-13.7 percent shift as the Astros began building the pressure that would break Boston open.

Altuve finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-38.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-4.3, with Alvarez close behind at plus-35.1 percent WPA and plus-4.1 RE24. Abreu contributed plus-17.6 percent WPA and a plus-3.0 RE24 in a strong supporting role. On the mound, Kendall Graveman led Houston's relievers with a plus-8.4 percent WPA, while Chris Sale closed as the hardest-hit pitcher, finishing at minus-8.9 percent WPA for Boston.