MLB Recap · August 27, 2023

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

TEX6
Final
MIN7

Line Score

Team12345678910111213RHE
TEX01040000000106100
MIN0000040010011781

The Story

The Minnesota Twins edged the Texas Rangers 7-6 in 13 innings on August 27, 2023, at Target Field, completing a dramatic comeback that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Minnesota win from 50 percent before the first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. Texas had built a 5-0 lead through five innings, with four runs crossing in the fourth, but Minnesota answered with four runs in the bottom of the sixth on a Royce Lewis home run off Chris Stratton that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability 26.0 percentage points in the Twins' favor. The game remained deadlocked deep into extra innings before a Rangers run in the top of the 12th briefly tilted the outcome, only for Minnesota to answer with one of their own and then push the decisive run across in the 13th.

The game's single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Donovan Solano laced a single off Aroldis Chapman that swung win probability 43.6 percentage points toward Minnesota, preventing what would have been a Texas victory in regulation. Solano finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-59.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.4. The walk-off sequence in the 13th began when Michael A. Taylor drew a walk off Jonathan Hernández, a play worth plus-33.4 percentage points and enough to push Taylor to plus-50.3 percent WPA for the night. Jorge Polanco's fielder's choice out in the 12th had already quietly contributed a plus-31.8 percentage point swing, keeping the Twins alive through the chaos.

On the pitching side, Will Smith led Minnesota's relievers with plus-22.1 percent WPA, followed by Dallas Keuchel at plus-19.2 percent and Jordan Montgomery at plus-10.5 percent. For Texas, Nathaniel Lowe's strikeout against Emilio Pagán in the top of the 12th represented the Rangers' most damaging moment, a minus swing of 23.1 percentage points that reflected how thoroughly the Twins' bullpen contained them in the late innings. Jonah Heim was Texas's most effective offensive contributor at plus-23.3 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, but it was not enough as Minnesota completed the comeback across 13 innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TEX bats firstFinalMIN win %TEX win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 49.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Donovan Solano Single
Bot 9th · off Aroldis Chapman
+43.6%
Bot 13th · off Jonathan Hernández
+33.4%
Jorge Polanco Fielders Choice Out
Bot 12th · off Brock Burke
+31.8%
Royce Lewis Home Run
Bot 6th · off Chris Stratton
+26.0%
Nathaniel Lowe Strikeout
Top 12th · off Emilio Pagán
+23.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Donovan Solano+59.2%+1.4 RE24
Michael A. Taylor+50.3%+0.5 RE24
Jonah Heim+23.3%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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