Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | 5 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 on July 6, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Dodgers built their advantage in bursts, scoring two in the first inning, two more in the sixth, and one in the seventh, while Pittsburgh's offense managed just four hits and two runs across the game.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the sixth inning against Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo. A Miguel Vargas double in the fifth had already begun shifting the model's estimate, adding 7.4 percentage points of win probability, but the sixth inning proved fatal for the Pirates. Freddie Freeman's double off Oviedo added 8.2 percentage points, and Max Muncy followed with a home run that swung win probability by 16.8 points, the single most impactful play of the game. Freeman then extended the damage further with a single off Angel Perdomo in the seventh, adding another 7.3 percentage points. Pittsburgh's best remaining threat evaporated in the top of the eighth when Joshua Palacios grounded into a double play against Brusdar Graterol, costing the Pirates 8.9 percentage points of win probability.
Freeman was the game's top performer by win-probability contribution, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-16.8 and an RE24 of plus-2.8, while Muncy posted a WPA of plus-15.0. On the pitching side, Julio Urías led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-12.8, supported by Nick Robertson at plus-7.2 and Graterol at plus-4.5 as the Dodgers' staff held Pittsburgh's lineup largely in check throughout the contest.