Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies took down the Tampa Bay Rays 3-1 in eleven innings on July 6, 2023, at Tropicana Field, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 63 percent pre-game home win probability for Tampa Bay. The Rays drew first blood in the fifth inning when Isaac Paredes launched a home run off Cristopher Sánchez, a swing that shifted win probability 13.1 percent in Tampa Bay's favor and stood as the game's only scoring until the eleventh. From there, the Rays squandered opportunities to close it out, with Paredes grounding out against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth and Christian Bethancourt grounding out against Matt Strahm in the tenth — both outs actually swinging win probability toward Philadelphia by 14.0 percent each as the Rays failed to capitalize on the automatic runner rule.

Philadelphia finally broke through in the top of the eleventh against Ryan Thompson. Kyle Schwarber delivered a single that vaulted the Phillies' win probability by 34.7 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and Trea Turner followed with another single worth an additional 18.3 percent. The Phillies plated two runs in that frame and carried a 3-1 lead into the bottom half, which held for the final margin.

Paredes finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-23.2 percent despite ending up on the losing side, posting a plus-0.6 RE24 on the strength of his fifth-inning home run. Schwarber led Philadelphia's position players at plus-21.0 percent and a plus-0.7 RE24, while Darick Hall contributed plus-15.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Sánchez led all pitchers at plus-22.3 percent WPA despite surrendering the Paredes homer, followed by Kevin Kelly at plus-15.4 percent and Pete Fairbanks at plus-13.5 percent as the Philadelphia staff collectively shut down Tampa Bay over the game's critical final innings.