MLB Recap · July 6, 2023

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

STL3
Final
MIA0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL000001110370
MIA000000000090

The Story

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Miami Marlins 3-0 on July 6, 2023, at loanDepot park, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Miami a 69 percent chance of winning at home. The Cardinals produced all three of their runs across the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings against a Marlins team that managed nine hits but could not convert them into runs.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the sixth when Nolan Arenado connected on a home run off Eury Pérez, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-14.6 percent in St. Louis's favor. The Marlins responded with their most threatening moment of the night in the bottom of the seventh, when a Jesús Sánchez forceout off Chris Stratton swung win probability 14.5 percent toward Miami, though the inning ended without damage. St. Louis answered immediately in the top of the seventh, as Alec Burleson singled off Dylan Floro for a plus-10.9 percent swing, and Nolan Gorman followed in the eighth with a double off George Soriano worth plus-10.3 percent, effectively salting the game away.

Gorman was the Cardinals' top offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing at plus-16.7 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, narrowly edging Arenado, who posted plus-15.4 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. Burleson added plus-14.2 percent WPA of his own. On the mound, Jack Flaherty was the clear standout, credited with plus-33.7 percent WPA as he held the Marlins scoreless on a nine-hit night, supported by Stratton at plus-14.5 percent and Giovanny Gallegos at plus-5.2 percent to close it out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalMIA win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 69.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nolan Arenado Home Run
Top 6th · off Eury Pérez
+14.6%
Jesús Sánchez Forceout
Bot 7th · off Chris Stratton
-14.5%
Alec Burleson Single
Top 7th · off Dylan Floro
+10.9%
Nolan Gorman Double
Top 8th · off George Soriano
+10.3%
Paul DeJong Grounded Into DP
Top 5th · off Eury Pérez
-9.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Nolan Gorman+16.7%+1.8 RE24
Nolan Arenado+15.4%+0.9 RE24
Alec Burleson+14.2%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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