Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth inning to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 at American Family Field on July 5, 2023, completing a comeback that dropped the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win from a pre-game 60 percent all the way to zero. The Cubs managed just one run through the first eight innings against a Brewers squad that had taken a 3-1 lead on Willy Adames's home run off Justin Steele in the bottom of the sixth, a swing that shifted win probability 13.8 percent in Milwaukee's favor. The game appeared largely settled heading into the final frame, but the Cubs upended that narrative entirely against Devin Williams.

The decisive sequence in the ninth began when a fielding error on a ball off the bat of Nico Hoerner swung win probability 40.7 percent toward Chicago, the single largest momentum shift of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Mike Tauchman followed with a double off Williams that added another 30.8 percent to the Cubs' win probability, and Chicago ultimately scored three times to take a 4-3 lead. In the bottom of the ninth, Christian Yelich lined out against Adbert Alzolay in what proved to be a 31.6 percent win-probability swing in the Cubs' favor, as Milwaukee's final threat evaporated.

Tauchman finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-37.0 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Hoerner contributed plus-31.6 percent WPA in a rally he helped ignite. Yelich ranked third among all batters at plus-30.5 percent WPA despite appearing in the losing effort, a reflection of how tightly contested the final inning remained until Alzolay closed it out. On the pitching side, Hoby Milner led Cubs relievers with a plus-12.9 percent WPA, while Adrian Houser paced Milwaukee's staff at plus-6.4 percent WPA in a losing cause.