Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Washington Nationals an 8-4 defeat at Nationals Park on July 4, 2023, completing the game with 16 hits and zero errors while holding Washington to just seven hits. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home side a 39% chance of winning, and that figure steadily eroded as Cincinnati built its lead, ultimately reaching 0% by the final out.
The decisive swing in momentum came in the top of the third inning, when Nick Senzel launched a home run off Patrick Corbin that shifted win probability by plus-14.7 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. Washington mounted its most significant threat in the bottom of the sixth, where Joey Meneses delivered a single off Fernando Cruz worth plus-13.9 percentage points and Riley Adams drew a hit by pitch that added another plus-12.9 points, briefly narrowing the gap. However, Fernando Cruz limited the damage when CJ Abrams and Derek Hill struck out, swinging win probability back toward Cincinnati by minus-7.0 and minus-6.5 percentage points respectively, effectively extinguishing the Nationals' best scoring opportunity of the night.
On the individual side, Meneses led all position players with a plus-14.1% WPA and a plus-1.6 RE24, while Senzel contributed plus-13.1% WPA despite a modest plus-0.5 RE24, reflecting the outsized situational impact of his home run. Jonathan India posted the strongest run-environment figure among Reds hitters at plus-1.7 RE24 to go with plus-9.3% WPA. Cincinnati's relief corps was equally efficient, with Alex Young leading pitchers at plus-6.3% WPA, followed by Lucas Sims at plus-5.8% and Brett Kennedy at plus-5.5%, collectively preserving the victory through the game's final frames.