Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1 |
| LAD | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 9-7 defeat at Dodger Stadium on July 4, 2023, overcoming a pre-game environment that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had tilting heavily toward Los Angeles at 62 percent. Pittsburgh scratched out runs in the first and fourth innings before Los Angeles answered with clusters of their own, and the game remained contested deep into the late frames. The Dodgers pulled within striking distance in the bottom of the eighth when Jonny DeLuca connected on a home run off Angel Perdomo, a swing that added 21.4 percent to Los Angeles's win probability and momentarily gave the home side genuine momentum heading to the ninth.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth inning against Evan Phillips, when the Pirates seized control with a pair of swings that essentially ended the contest. Jared Triolo's single off Phillips added 41.2 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability, the single largest play of the game by that measure, and Joshua Palacios followed with a double that tacked on another 24.3 percent, pushing the Pirates to a three-run advantage they would not relinquish. Those two at-bats effectively collapsed what had been a competitive game into a Pittsburgh victory, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a live contest to a 0 percent finish for Los Angeles.
Triolo finished as the top performer by WPA, accumulating a plus-46.6 percent figure to go with a RE24 of plus-0.8, while James Outman paced Los Angeles batters with a plus-30.5 percent WPA and plus-3.4 RE24, driven largely by his fourth-inning home run off Luis Ortiz that had added 18.7 percent to the Dodgers' win probability. Palacios contributed plus-24.3 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 for Pittsburgh. On the mound, Colin Holderman led Pittsburgh's bullpen contributors at plus-12.1 percent WPA, followed by Phil Bickford at plus-10.6 percent and Carmen Mlodzinski at plus-10.5 percent, a trio that collectively preserved the Pirates' advantage through the middle innings.