Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs outlasted the Milwaukee Brewers 7-6 in eleven innings on July 4, 2023, at American Family Field, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 61 percent pre-game home win probability for Milwaukee and reducing it to zero by the final out. The game required extra innings to settle, with both clubs trading runs through a tense late sequence that kept the outcome in doubt deep into the night.

The decisive sequence unfolded across the final three innings and was defined by some of the sharpest win-probability swings of the contest. In the bottom of the ninth, Jesse Winker's hit by pitch off Adbert Alzolay shifted the win probability in Milwaukee's favor by 24.5 percent, keeping Brewers hopes alive. Willy Adames had already put pressure on Chicago with a double off Alzolay in the eighth that represented a 20.1 percent swing. But Chicago answered in the eleventh when Nico Hoerner singled off Clayton Andrews for a 28.5 percent win-probability swing, the single largest play of the game. Dansby Swanson's strikeout in that same half-inning added another 21.1 percent in Chicago's direction, and in the bottom of the eleventh, Raimel Tapia's groundout off Daniel Palencia closed the door with a 23.7 percent swing that sealed the Cubs' victory.

Hoerner finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating plus-30.8 percent in win probability added alongside plus-0.1 RE24, while Swanson contributed plus-25.5 percent WPA and Tapia added plus-26.0 percent WPA with plus-0.6 RE24 despite his contribution coming on the mound side of the ledger. Among pitchers, Kyle Hendricks led the staff with plus-18.1 percent WPA, supported by Julian Merryweather at plus-8.8 percent and Bryse Wilson at plus-7.0 percent. Chicago finished with 13 hits against Milwaukee's 11, committing one error to the Brewers' none across the eleven-inning affair.