St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | 15 | 19 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins handed the St. Louis Cardinals a lopsided 15-2 defeat on July 4, 2023, at loanDepot park, turning what the DiamondIQ model had already estimated as a 69% home win probability into a complete rout that finished at 100%. Miami wasted no time asserting control, scoring in the first inning and never relinquishing the lead across nine frames, finishing with 19 hits and no errors while St. Louis managed just 9 hits and committed one error.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the third inning when Garrett Cooper launched a home run off Adam Wainwright, a swing that added 6.7 percentage points to Miami's win probability and served as the game's single most impactful play according to the DiamondIQ model. Jesús Sánchez had already set the tone with a first-inning home run off Wainwright worth 4.1 percentage points, and Cooper added a run-producing single in the fourth off JoJo Romero for another 3.8-point swing. St. Louis generated some brief resistance, with Andrew Knizner's single in the third briefly contributing 3.7 percentage points the Cardinals' direction, but Dylan Carlson's strikeout against Jesús Luzardo in the second inning represented a 4.0-point swing away from St. Louis, reflecting how thoroughly Miami controlled the at-bat environment throughout.
Cooper finished as the game's top batter by win-probability added at plus-10.8 percentage points with a RE24 of plus-3.2, while Jorge Soler contributed plus-5.9 percentage points and led all hitters with a RE24 of plus-3.4. On the mound, Jesús Luzardo was the standout performer, posting a plus-10.2 percentage-point WPA as he kept Cardinal hitters off balance and allowed Miami's offense to build a cushion that proved insurmountable. The model leans heavily toward performances like Luzardo's and Cooper's as the primary drivers of the final margin.