Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians walked off the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in ten innings on July 4, 2023, at Progressive Field, overcoming a significant deficit and a late Atlanta rally to claim a victory the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 36 percent chance of occurring before first pitch. Cleveland built its early foundation in the third inning, when Amed Rosario delivered a double off Kolby Allard that added 18.9 percentage points to Cleveland's win probability, and the Guardians held that lead through a scoreless fourth before Atlanta erupted for four runs in the fifth.
That fifth-inning burst was powered in large part by Ozzie Albies, whose home run off Shane Bieber swung win probability 20.0 points in Atlanta's favor and gave the Braves command of the game heading into the middle frames. Cleveland responded with a run in the sixth and two more in the seventh, the latter fueled by another Rosario single off Kirby Yates worth 17.2 percentage points, restoring the Guardians' lead. Albies refused to let Atlanta fold, connecting again in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase for a solo home run that added 34.2 percentage points to Atlanta's chances and knotted the score at five heading to extras. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the tenth, when David Fry lined a walk-off single off Raisel Iglesias, the single play of the game by win-probability impact at plus 35.9 points, pushing Cleveland's model estimate from a precarious situation to a final probability of 100 percent.
Rosario finished as the game's most impactful hitter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 63.5 percent with an RE24 of plus 3.5 across his multiple key hits. Albies was nearly his equal at plus 54.6 percent WPA and plus 3.3 RE24 despite pitching for the losing side, while Fry's late heroics produced a plus 42.7 percent WPA line on just the one decisive swing. Out of the Cleveland bullpen, Trevor Stephan led all pitchers at plus 10.8 percent WPA, with Eli Morgan and Collin McHugh each contributing positive outings as the Guardians bridged the gap to Fry's walk-off moment.