Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held off the Washington Nationals 3-2 at Nationals Park on July 3, 2023, completing a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate entered with Washington holding a 40% win probability and closed at 0%. The decisive offensive sequence came in the fourth inning, when Joey Votto connected on a home run off Jake Irvin, a swing that shifted win probability 16.0 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. Jeimer Candelario added a home run of his own later in that same frame, this time off Luke Weaver, pushing another 10.0 points toward the Reds and effectively framing the fourth as the game's turning point. Washington answered with a solo shot in the bottom half and pulled a run back in the sixth on a Keibert Ruiz single off Ian Gibaut, a hit that added 10.3 points to the Nationals' win probability and kept the game in reach.

Cincinnati's bullpen ultimately sealed the outcome, with Derek Law delivering the most impactful pitching performance of the night at plus-23.3% WPA, including stranding the threat in the eighth inning when Joey Meneses grounded out, a play that swung probability 12.9 points away from Washington. Jordan Weems and Buck Farmer also contributed, adding 9.8 and 9.7 percentage points respectively to Cincinnati's win probability. The Nationals pushed into the ninth with hope still alive, but CJ Abrams grounded out against Alexis Díaz to end the game, a final play that, while adding 16.3 points to Washington's column in a leverage sense, came too late to alter the result. Votto led all batters with a plus-9.5% WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Candelario and Corey Dickerson rounded out the Reds' top performers at plus-8.3% and plus-7.8% WPA respectively.