San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the San Francisco Giants 8-4 at Citi Field on July 2, 2023, in a game that was largely settled by the third inning and never seriously threatened thereafter. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening giving the Mets a 44 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the contest once the early scoring began.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, where the Mets stacked damage against Alex Wood. Jeff McNeil's single was the single most impactful batting play of the game by win-probability added, pushing New York's chances up 16.4 percentage points, while Pete Alonso's walk added another 10.5 points as the Mets plated three runs in the frame to seize control. San Francisco briefly threatened in the top of the seventh, when J.D. Davis delivered a double off Dominic Leone worth 15.4 points of win probability for the Giants, and Blake Sabol followed with a three-run home run off Jeff Brigham that added 12.3 points, trimming the deficit to a more manageable margin. However, Davis's strikeout against Adam Ottavino in the top of the eighth, which cost San Francisco 14.3 points of win probability, effectively closed the door on any rally as the Mets responded with two more runs in the bottom half.

Pete Alonso led all position players with a WPA of plus-23.9 and an RE24 of plus-2.8, making him the most impactful bat on either side. Tommy Pham contributed plus-14.5 WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while McNeil added plus-14.1 WPA to round out a balanced Mets offensive effort. On the mound, Brooks Raley was the most valuable arm in the game at plus-12.2 WPA, with David Peterson and Grant Hartwig each contributing meaningfully as well. San Francisco's two errors compounded its difficulties against a Mets club that committed none across eleven hits.