Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox held off the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 at Rogers Centre on July 1, 2023, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Toronto victory open at 58 percent and close at zero. Boston built its lead in waves, with Rafael Devers delivering the first major blow in the third inning, a home run off Yusei Kikuchi that added 18.4 percent to Boston's win probability and stood as one of the defining swings of the first half of the game. The Red Sox tacked on three more runs in the fifth and one in the sixth, pushing their advantage to a margin that looked comfortable heading into the late innings.

Toronto refused to concede quietly. Matt Chapman's home run off Josh Winckowski in the bottom of the eighth was the single biggest positive swing for the Blue Jays all night, adding 23.9 percent to their win probability and pulling Toronto within reach. The ninth inning intensified further when Bo Bichette doubled off Kenley Jansen to add another 16.2 percent, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with a single that swung the needle 25.3 percent in Toronto's favor, making it a one-run game. The rally stalled, however, when Cavan Biggio struck out against Jansen, a swing that cost the Blue Jays 22.1 percent in win probability and ended the threat.

Chapman finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-29.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.7, though his efforts came in a losing cause. On the Boston side, Devers posted plus-27.2 percent WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, while Justin Turner contributed plus-25.4 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24 to anchor what proved to be a decisive offensive performance. Kutter Crawford led Boston's pitching staff with plus-8.4 percent WPA, the strongest contribution among all pitchers in the game.