San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres rolled to a 12-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on July 1, 2023, overcoming a game in which the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave Cincinnati a 61 percent chance of winning at home. The Padres chipped away early with a run in the third on a Fernando Tatis Jr. double off Brandon Williamson, a play that shifted win probability 8.5 points in San Diego's favor. The real damage came in the sixth inning, when Juan Soto crushed a home run off Buck Farmer that swung win probability by 28.8 points, the single most decisive moment of the game. Manny Machado followed with his own home run off Farmer in that same frame, adding another 7.3 points, and a Ha-Seong Kim fielders choice extended the damage further, turning a manageable game into a four-run inning that effectively ended the contest. The Padres piled on five more in the seventh before Cincinnati's offense pushed four across in the bottom half, but San Diego's advantage was well beyond reach by that point.

Soto was the game's dominant individual performer, finishing with a net WPA of plus-26.6 and an RE24 of plus-2.5, numbers that reflected how thoroughly his sixth-inning blow reshaped the outcome. On the Cincinnati side, Matt McLain provided the Reds' most impactful at-bat, his third-inning double off Michael Wacha generating plus-10.6 in win probability and accounting for the bulk of his plus-7.9 WPA for the game. Jake Fraley contributed plus-7.3 WPA for Cincinnati, though neither effort was enough to offset the Padres' surge. Wacha led all pitchers with plus-16.5 WPA for San Diego, keeping the Reds in check through the early innings, while the Reds finished with two errors against San Diego's clean defensive showing, contributing to a final line of 12 runs on 10 hits for the visitors.