Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians shut out the Chicago Cubs 6-0 at Wrigley Field on July 1, 2023, handing Chicago a complete-game blanking that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way down to zero by the final out. Cleveland scored all six of its runs in two innings, plating two in the third and four more in the sixth, while the Cubs managed five hits and committed one error without ever threatening the scoreboard.

The game's single most consequential swing came in the top of the third, when Amed Rosario singled off Marcus Stroman to shift win probability 17.2 percent in Cleveland's favor, the largest single-play movement of the night. Stroman was touched again in the sixth, when Andrés Giménez's single added another 8.6 percent, and Julian Merryweather's entrance offered little relief as Will Brennan and Myles Straw each added run-scoring singles worth 7.7 and 7.3 percent respectively. On the Chicago side, Dansby Swanson's strikeout against Tanner Bibee in the fourth represented the Cubs' most damaging moment, a 7.5 percent swing away from the home team at a point when they still had room to respond.

The individual performance that defined the game belonged to Tanner Bibee, whose outing generated a model-leading 24.5 percent win probability added for the Guardians. Rosario finished as the top offensive contributor with a 15.3 percent WPA and a 0.8 RE24, while Giménez added 8.4 percent WPA and 0.6 RE24. Ian Happ, at 4.8 percent WPA and 0.4 RE24, was the lone Cub to register positively in the model's accounting, a modest bright spot in an otherwise one-sided afternoon.