San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds walked off the San Diego Padres 7-5 in eleven innings on June 30, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 62 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent. The contest was scoreless through five innings before both clubs exchanged single runs in the sixth, and the Reds added another in the seventh to hold a slim advantage heading into the late innings. San Diego pulled even and forced extra innings, setting the stage for a dramatic finish that swung decisively in Cincinnati's favor.

The pivotal moment arrived in the bottom of the tenth, when Matt McLain launched a home run off Ray Kerr that shifted win probability by 52.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night, pulling the Reds back from the brink and forcing an eleventh inning. San Diego briefly answered in the top of the eleventh on a Gary Sanchez single off Alex Young that added 37.4 percentage points to the Padres' win probability, momentarily keeping them alive. The Reds then closed it out decisively in the bottom half against Drew Carlton. Elly De La Cruz lined a double for a 44.1-point swing, and though Nick Senzel's fielder's choice out briefly deflated the rally by 26.5 points, Spencer Steer ended the night with a walk-off home run worth 42.9 percentage points.

De La Cruz finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a 52.2 percent cumulative WPA and 0.8 RE24, while Steer contributed 51.9 percent WPA and led all hitters with a 2.4 RE24. Sanchez paced San Diego with 43.3 percent WPA and 1.5 RE24 despite the loss. On the mound, Seth Lugo led Reds pitchers with 20.4 percent WPA, followed by Lucas Sims at 18.3 percent and Graham Ashcraft at 9.2 percent, as Cincinnati's staff ultimately held the Padres to five runs on nine hits while committing no errors against San Diego's two.