Cleveland Guardians at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs routed the Cleveland Guardians 10-1 at Wrigley Field on June 30, 2023, a result that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory climb from 53 percent before first pitch all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago did most of its damage in the middle innings, plating two in the third, four in the fourth, and three more in the sixth, while holding Cleveland to a single run in the ninth against what had become a comfortable lead. The Cubs finished with 13 hits against the Guardians' five, controlling the game from the third inning onward.

The decisive stretch came at the hands of Cal Quantrill, who absorbed the bulk of Chicago's offensive output. In the bottom of the third, Nico Hoerner's single added 11.4 percentage points of win probability, and a Mike Tauchman walk that followed pushed the needle another 8.1 points, deepening Quantrill's trouble. A Dansby Swanson pop out briefly stalled the threat at a cost of 4.9 percentage points, but Jared Young answered with a single worth 2.7 points to keep the frame alive. Young then delivered the game's single largest swing in the fourth, a triple off Quantrill that added 12.7 percentage points to Chicago's win probability. Young finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-15.4 percent with an RE24 of plus-2.3, followed closely by Hoerner at plus-13.4 percent and plus-1.8, and Tauchman at plus-9.3 percent and plus-0.8.

On the mound, Justin Steele was the story for Chicago, posting a game-high plus-16.3 percent WPA while limiting Cleveland's offense throughout his outing. Michael Rucker and David Fry each finished at 0.0 percent WPA in their appearances, contributing to a clean collective effort from the Cubs bullpen that secured the lopsided final margin.