San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants rallied past the New York Mets 5-4 at Citi Field on June 30, 2023, overcoming an early deficit to hand New York a loss the DiamondIQ model had given them only a 42 percent chance of avoiding entering the night. The Giants trailed and scratched for runs in a back-and-forth game, but the decisive blow came in the top of the eighth inning when catcher Patrick Bailey connected on a home run off David Robertson, a swing the DiamondIQ model measured as the single most impactful play of the night at plus 40.7 percent in win probability. That three-run eighth frame, in which San Francisco plated three unanswered runs to seize control, effectively ended New York's realistic path to victory. The Mets' best counterpunch in that same half-inning came to nothing when Brett Baty flied out against Tyler Rogers in the bottom of the eighth, a failed opportunity that shifted win probability by minus 16.5 percent against New York's chances.

Wilmer Flores had kept San Francisco alive earlier, launching a home run off Carlos Carrasco in the top of the fifth for a plus 12.4 percent swing, while Jeff McNeil's double off Alex Cobb in the bottom of that inning kept the Mets competitive at plus 14.3 percent. The Giants ultimately closed it out through Camilo Doval, who stranded Brandon Nimmo on a strikeout in the ninth, though Nimmo's at-bat represented a plus 16.3 percent swing for San Francisco's side of the ledger as the model registered the game's final tension. Bailey finished as the top positional contributor at plus 32.8 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Tommy Pham added plus 17.0 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24 in support. On the mound, Tyler Rogers led all pitchers with plus 23.3 percent WPA by holding the Mets scoreless after the Giants built their late lead, with Jeff Brigham contributing plus 10.9 percent in relief.