Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Chicago Cubs 3-1 at Wrigley Field on June 29, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly certain as the game progressed. Chicago entered with a 47 percent pre-game win probability according to the model, but that figure fell to zero by the final out. Philadelphia scored all three of its runs in the first three innings, taking a 1-0 lead in the first before adding two more in the third, while the Cubs managed their only run in the bottom of the second on a Jared Young triple off Taijuan Walker, a play that shifted win probability 8.9 percent in Chicago's favor but ultimately amounted to nothing in the final accounting.
The single most consequential offensive moment of the game came in the top of the third, when Bryce Harper singled off Kyle Hendricks for a swing of plus-19.3 percent win probability, the largest such shift of the contest. That hit proved to be the defining blow, and Harper finished as the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-17.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-0.9. On the other side, Ian Happ's lineout in the bottom of the fifth off Taijuan Walker represented a lost opportunity for Chicago, costing the Cubs 9.8 percent in win probability, while Nico Hoerner's single in the same inning added 8.2 percent in a sequence that never translated into a run.
Taijuan Walker was the most impactful performer of the night overall, contributing plus-23.5 percent WPA from the mound while navigating the Cubs lineup through the heart of the game. Gregory Soto added plus-13.3 percent WPA in relief, and Yunior Marte contributed plus-8.8 percent as Philadelphia's bullpen held Chicago scoreless over the final seven innings. Craig Kimbrel closed it out in the ninth, and his strikeout of Mike Tauchman to end the game registered as a plus-14.4 percent swing, the second-largest play of the night, sealing the Phillies' road victory on a night when their pitching staff ultimately made the difference.