Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins shut out the Boston Red Sox 2-0 at Fenway Park on June 29, 2023, holding Boston scoreless across nine innings while scratching out single runs in the eighth and ninth frames. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Boston a 44% chance of winning on their home field, but that probability collapsed to 0% by the final out. Miami's pitching staff was the story from start to finish, with Brayan Bello, Tanner Scott, and Jesús Luzardo combining for the three highest win-probability contributions on the mound, posting WPA figures of +24.3%, +23.3%, and +23.1% respectively.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the eighth inning, where the game's two most impactful plays occurred in close succession. Jon Berti opened Miami's half of the eighth with a single off Chris Martin that shifted the win-probability needle by +10.9%, though Jorge Soler's subsequent strikeout against Martin cost the Marlins 9.5 percentage points before Nick Fortes grounded into a double play, surrendering 14.8% in win probability and capping what became a modest but ultimately sufficient offensive push. On the Boston side, Justin Turner's strikeout against Tanner Scott in the bottom of the eighth was the single most damaging plate appearance of the game for the Red Sox, draining 16.5% from their win probability. Adam Duvall's flyout against A.J. Puk in the ninth actually added 14.4% to Boston's chances, making it the most favorable batting-team outcome of that frame, though it came too late to alter the result.
Among position players, Adam Duvall led all batters with a +16.2% WPA despite a -0.5 RE24, a reflection of his situational impact outpacing his direct run-creation. Jesús Sánchez posted the strongest RE24 among Marlins hitters at +1.0, while Enrique Hernández contributed +7.9% WPA for Boston in a losing effort. The model's estimate swung decisively toward Miami as Scott and Luzardo closed out a game in which the Red Sox managed just four hits and committed one error against a Marlins club that needed nothing more than two late runs to walk away with the victory.